PROMES Real Estate
- 2022年2月8日
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【物流地產如何搭上電商零售成長商機？（上）｜時事新思維】

已更新：2022年2月23日

How can logistics real estate market take advantage of e-commerce retail sales growth trend? ( Part One )

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近幾年來，市場對於工業用地產之投資持續成長，根據信義全球資產2018、2021年研究報告顯示，工業地產大型交易總金額從2018年的475億元增加至2021年的836億元，其占整體商用不動產的比例也從43%上升至50%左右（註1）。大型零售業者如全聯、全家、Momo、統一，皆積極購置物流地產。其中，全聯在2020年宣布高雄市斥資近十億元打造全台最大自動倉儲之後，又最近宣布加碼投資建置冷鏈物流中心。

In recent years, retailers and investors have continued to make large investments in industrial real estate. According to the Xinyi Global Assets Research Report (issued in year 2018 and year 2021, Note 1), the total value of large industrial real estate transactions has increased by 76% from 47.5 billion yuan in 2018 to 83.6 billion yuan in 2021. The proportion of industrial real estate properties investment in total real estate investment has also increased from 43% to 50%. In fact, large-scale retailers in Taiwan such as PXMart, FamilyMart, Momo, and Uni-President are all actively purchasing logistics real estate now. Among all of them, PXMart is the most active one and has recently again invested in the construction of a cold chain logistics center, following an investment announced in 2020 of nearly one billion TWD in Kaohsiung City to build the largest automatic warehouse in Taiwan.

而這樣的趨勢很有可能會延續下去。仲量聯行預測未來三到五年內，亞太地區物流和工業房地產的投資將從2019到2020年的每年250-300億美元增加至2023到2025年的每年500-600億美元（註2）。

Such trend is likely to continue to grow its momentum as JLL forecasts that over the next three to five years, investment in industrial real estate in Asia Pacific will increase from $25-30 billion USD per year in 2019-20 to $50-60 billion USD per year in 2023-25 (Note 2).

其中，主打「去中心化」的衛星倉為趨勢下的熱門物流產品。國際零售巨頭如Amazon、Walmart正在擴大投資布局此類產品，而國內大型電商Momo也持續跟隨零售巨頭的腳步，在台灣陸陸續續蓋了25座衛星倉。究竟物流工業地產和衛星倉在疫情衝擊下為何仍會受到業主及投資人的青睞？

Among those industrial trends, warehouses that focus on "decentralization" are most popular logistics products right now. International retail giants such as Amazon and Walmart are expanding their investment in similar area, while Momo, a large domestic e-commerce company in Taiwan who seeks to follow the footsteps of those international retail giants ,have also built over 25 decentralized warehouses in the country. Why are logistics real estate and decentralized warehouses so favored by large retailers and investors under the current Pandemic?

疫情推動電商發展

COVID-19 boosts the growth of e-commerce

隨著疫情反覆影響著全世界，消費者逐漸習慣以線上下單的方式完成購物。根據Statista在2021年發布的研究顯示，電商收入佔整體零售業收入的比例從2016年的8.6%一路增加至2020年18%（註3），推動零售業者重新思考電商與實體店面的投資權重，使實體通路為主的零售業者紛紛加速投資電商服務。

As the Pandemic has repeatedly disrupted the world, consumers have gradually become accustomed to online shopping. According to recent research made by Statista in 2021 (Note 3), the proportion of e-commerce revenue in the total retail revenue has increased from 8.6% in 2016 to 18% in 2020, prompting retailers to reconsider the strategy of their sales channel distribution between e-commerce and brick-and-mortar stores, and accelerating investments in e-commerce services.

例如家樂福總公司從2018年起已投資20億歐元於技術和數位轉型，成立自有電商平台，疫情期間繳出超市業績成長50%、電商成長178%好成績（註4）。而集團預期將在2022年至2026年期間持續進行30億歐元的數位投資，強化電商平台服務。

For example, Carrefour has invested 2 billion euros globally in technology and digital transformation since 2018, and has established its own e-commerce platform. During the Pandemic, the sales of supermarkets has increased by 50% and the sales of e-commerce grew by 178% (Note 4). The group expects to invest an additional 3 billion euros in digital installments from 2022 to 2026, to enhance its e-commerce platform services.

又如全家於2021年底推出會員APP史上最大改版，加入購物商城新功能，正式推出自己的電商平台「全+1商城」。此功能旨在串連線上線下的會員購物需求，並結合既有的自有物流、店面取貨服務，迎合OMO全通路趨勢。

Take Family Mart in Taiwan as another example. Family Mart launched its revised membership APP at the end of 2021 by adding new function of its own e-commerce platform "Quan +1 Mall". This function aims to connect the shopping needs of its users by combining its online shopping platform with Family Mart’s existing logistics and store pickup services, in order to meet the Online-Merge-Offline (OMO) omni-channel trend.

消費者認知改變

Shifts in consumer perception

在電商成長加速的同時，消費者對於線上訂單交貨速度、可靠度期望較以前更高：據PWC在2021年的調查結果顯示，41%的消費者對於同日運送願意付更多錢（註5），相比於五年前只有25%的消費者有這個傾向，顯示出消費者對於「時效性」價值的重視；與此同時，消費者也被近年盛行的快速物流養大了胃口，只有20%的消費者會原諒交貨延遲(儘管遲延的原因是因為新冠疫情) （註6，安永未來消費指數2021年發布），因此供應鏈出問題將直接失去用戶。透過上述數據我們可以發現，現在的電商零售不再只是以價格、品質作為優先考量：除了商品本身的品質、價格之外，物流速度也成為了OMO世代的零售競爭關鍵。

The accelerating growth of e-commerce sales has increased consumers’ expectations for delivery speed and reliability of online orders. According to the delivery expectations survey results carried out by PWC (2021, Note 5), 41% of consumers are willing to pay more for same-day delivery, compared to a proportion of 25% five years ago, which shows that consumers have attached much greater importance to the value of "timeliness" than before; at the same time, consumers have also raised their standards due to the logistics speed that has been practiced in recent years. Statistics from EY Future Consumer Index (2021, Note 6) state that only 20% of consumers are willing to forgive delivery delays (even if the delay is caused by the Pandemic), leading to the fact that stores with supply chain problems are losing customers. Thus, it can be found that in addition to the quality and price of the product itself, logistics speed has also become the key to retail success in the OMO era.

因此，各大零售業者紛紛加深佈局物流業務，推動物流地產市場買氣。而衛星倉較傳統大型物流倉更為貼近消費市場，成為許多國內外零售商的佈局重點。例如電商平台Momo趁競爭者PChome忙著打運費補貼戰時，悄悄將原本的大統倉物流鏈改成主倉加衛星倉的短鏈物流，成功縮短送貨距離並建立競爭優勢。

那麼，就物流地產的業主而言，要如何順應電商商機成長加速與消費者越來越重視網購的交貨速度的趨勢，為其不動產提升價值？

Therefore, major retailers have increased their investment in logistics business, further driving up prices in the logistics real estate market. Decentralized warehouses that are closer than traditional large logistics warehouses to the consumers market have become the investment focus of many domestic and foreign retailers. For example, Momo has established a competitive advantage by changing the arrangement of a large-scale warehouse logistics chain to a core-satellite warehouse, while its competitor, PChome, another large e-commerce platform in Taiwan, had a different approach by implementing the freight cost reduction strategy. Following the above logistics strategy adopted by major local e-commerce players, how can the logistics real estate owners and investors take advantage of the accelerating e-commerce business growth trend to maximize its logistics real estate asset value?

方法一：配合新選址趨勢

Method 1: Adoption of a new location strategy

首先，在對的位置開發不動產就能創造價值。以往在選擇物流地產區位時，為了降低土地成本，業主傾向將工業不動產設置於郊區但相對交通容易到達的地方。然而，在消費者逐漸重視交貨速度的趨勢下，接近消費者的物流不動產較具價值，較容易受到零售業者青睞。

First, developing real estate in the right location creates property value. In the past, when choosing a logistics real estate location with lower land costs, owners preferred suburban areas easily accessible by vehicles and lorries. However, as consumers increasingly value delivery speed, logistics real estates that are close to consumers are becoming more valuable and more likely to be favored by retailers and investors.

這個觀念的改變體現於當今零售業者倉儲物流的位置選擇。如零售巨頭Walmart於去年宣布，將規模化投資廣布全國的小型物流中心；而知名電商蝦皮則是看上宅經濟商機，從去年以來積極挑選貨物處理數量較集中、有網購人口利基的地點，在台灣開展超過270間實體門市。與亞馬遜的線下取貨專門店有異曲同工之妙，蝦皮店到店同樣為滲入社區當中的電商服務站，使品牌更貼近消費者，給予消費者不同以往的取貨通路選擇。因此我們可以看到，不同以往，現在的倉儲、物流中心主要以「縮短物流鏈」為考量。業主在選擇設址位置時，可以著重觀察地區的社會結構、整體消費行為數據，選在人口多、網購多的區域進行地產開發規劃；相反地，位於人口充沛地區但受疫情影響而租不出去的零售店面也可以規劃為實體倉儲空間，提供貨架、智慧型寄物櫃等，吸引蝦皮等潛在客戶承租。

We can see that large retailers and e-commerce players’ choice of logistics location today is being reflected in the above-mentioned consumer’s change of perception on delivery speed. For example, the retail giant Walmart announced last year that it would invest in small-scale logistics centers across the US; while the well-known local e-commerce company Shopee in Taiwan is seizing the similar business opportunities of the stay-at-home economy by setting up more than 270 physical stores in locations with a relatively concentrated online shopping population in Taiwan. Similar to Amazon's offline pickup store, Shopee Storefront Service is also an e-commerce service station that penetrates into the community, bringing the retail brands closer to consumers and giving consumers a different choice of delivery pickup channels.

Therefore, unlike the traditional warehousing and logistics investment in the past that considers primarily "shortening the cycle of the logistics chain", we can see that nowadays when investing in industrial or logistics related real estate assets, asset owners and investors starting to pay more attention to the social structure and overall consumption behavior data associated with the logistics site, and choosing areas easily accessible by large population with online shopping needs for its preliminary real estate development planning. Even some high street retail storefront assets are beginning to be utilized as part of temporary physical logistics space for providing shelves, smart lockers, etc., by potential tenants such as Shopee for their (online) store to (offline) store delivery.

方法二：數位化管理系統與智慧化物流設備

Method 2: Digitalization of management system and automatic logistics equipment

隨著互聯網、人工智慧的技術日益成熟，大型零售商如Amazon、Walmart的物流倉儲中心已導入數位化系統、智慧化設備。整合式的管理系統可以增加物流的作業效率，加強不同環節之間的鏈結。例如數位化整合輸送帶與自動化設備、整合倉儲系統與物流設備、整合庫存監測與客戶端等。確保每一個環節的順利連結將能使物流過程更加順暢，並即時偵錯、除錯。

With the advancing technology of the internet of things (IOT) and artificial intelligence (AI), large retailers such as Amazon and Walmart have introduced digital systems and automatic equipment in their the logistics and warehousing centers. An integrated management system can increase the operational efficiency of logistics and strengthen the synergy in the operating process. Real examples include integration of conveyor belts with automation equipment, integration of warehousing systems with logistics equipment, and integration of inventory monitoring with customer-end system. Ensuring the smooth connection of each process will make the logistics operation smoother, and can help users detect and debug errors at any time.

在物流中心採用機器人可以獲得許多好處。根據Quartz研究顯示，在高頻、複雜訂單中，機器人能提升效率節省空間，使空間能多存放50%存貨（註7）；此外，機器人可以用比人類少75%的時間完成找貨、取貨、包裝等任務（註8）。Amazon在物流程序各階段都使用了智慧化裝置：使用AGV移動貨架，便於員工將商品放上或取下倉儲貨架；貨品由輸送帶運輸至配送中心後，使用自動分揀系統(AS)決定貨物的去向；人工進行貨物包裝後，自動掃描出貨物資訊並記錄下來；利用自動碼垛機(AP)將貨物放置於托盤上並由AGV運輸出貨。從Amazon的智慧物流案例我們可以發現，在物流地產中針對租戶物流需求量身定做導入智慧化設備及數位化系統能夠提升業者作業效率、安全性，加快貨物的處理速度，能為其物流資產增加價值。

In addition, logistics real estate owners and investors can gain benefits from the adoption of robots in their logistics centers. According to Quartz’s research in 2016, robots not only can improve efficiency and save space in high-frequency and complex orders, allowing 50% more inventory to be stored in the space, but also spend 75% less time than humans on finding, packaging, and picking up goods (Note 7, Note 8). Amazon uses smart devices at all stages of the logistics process: AGVs are used to move the shelves; the automatic sorting system is used to determine the destination of the goods; the information of the goods is automatically scanned and recorded; the goods are placed on the pallets by the automatic palletizer. From Amazon's smart logistics case, we can find that the introduction of automatic equipment and digital systems tailored to tenants' logistics needs in logistics real estate can improve the efficiency and safety of operators, speed up the processing of goods, and increase the value of their logistics real estate assets.

方法三：適應新趨勢的空間規劃

Method 3: Adaption of new trends towards spatial planning

市區的土地成本通常較郊區高。因此，在市區較難獲得大面積物流倉儲中心。然而，在短鏈物流盛行的今天，零售商傾向於選擇離消費者更近的市區承租、購買衛星倉。在有限的樓地板面積，以及逐漸浮現的電商囤貨需求之下，業主可以將思維從水平轉為垂直，利用挑高設計增加空間使用效率與負載力。事實上，美國物流地產高度從36英尺逐漸往42英尺發展（註9）。將天花板加高可以滿足零售業者對於物流空間使用的需求，可以倉儲更多產品並節省土地成本，在網購盛行的今天增加不動產價值。

On the other hand, land costs in urban areas are generally higher than suburban areas. Therefore, it is difficult to obtain large-scale logistics storage centers in urban areas. However, with the prevalence of short-chain logistics today, retailers can choose to rent and purchase smaller scale decentralized warehouses which are closer to consumers. Due to the limited floor area and the emerging demand for stocking from e-commerce, logistics real estate owners and operators now reconsider the stock arrangement from a vertical perspective, and utilize the ceiling space of the property to increase space efficiency for their load capacity. In fact, the height of US logistics real estate has gradually increased from 36 feet to 42 feet (Note 9). Raising the ceiling height can help meet the needs of retailers for the use of logistics space, can store more products and save land costs, and therefore increase the value of real estate assets.

另外，如果要將物流地產規劃為可以導入AGV機器人的空間，就必須建造一個合適的環境。Amazon將物流中心內的倉儲空間規劃為行動貨架單元、機器人通行區和員工工作站三個區域，各區域內有不同的設置規劃。以機器人通行區來說，Amazon在該區域建立AGV路徑標記、軌道，以便機器人聽從指示運送貨物。事先做出產品定位，推測目標客群可能需要什麼樣的設備而給予適合的空間規劃，可以提升產品對於客戶的價值。

Also, prior to setting up AGV robots in logistics centers, it is necessary to arrange a suitable layout. Amazon divides the storage space in the logistics center into three areas: mobile shelf units, robot access areas, and employee workstations, while each area has a different setup plan. Taking the robot passage area as an example, Amazon establishes AGV path markers and tracks in this area so that robots can follow instructions to deliver goods. Therefore, it is believed that making product positioning in advance, estimating what kind of equipment the target customer group may need, and giving suitable space planning, can enhance the value of the logistic real estate products.

雖說零售電商的發展為物流地產業主帶來不少機會，物流業在快速發展之下勢必會面臨一些瓶頸，需要業主來克服。

Although the development of retail e-commerce has brought many opportunities for logistics real estate owners and investors, the logistics industry is bound to face some challenges under the rapid development, which needs to be overcome by logistics real estate owners and investors.